Market Commentary: Monday 1st July

'Saved by the Bell' is my favourite headline and a reference to a goal by Jude Bellingham in the fifth minute of extra time at the Euros and not the opening of a stock exchange. Welcome to July, a new month, with new data and potentially a new government in the UK. The election is Thursday which coincidences with 4th July US Independence Day and a U.S. holiday, an illiquid and volatile session. What else have we in store this week?

On Friday we have the non-farm payrolls, economists are expecting the U.S. economy to have added 189,000 jobs in June after a larger 272,000 jobs were added in May. This highlights the resilience of the US labour market and the need to push back on rates cut. The market is now pricing in December. On Tuesday the Fed Chair Jerome Powell makes an appearance at the European Central Bank’s annual forum in Sintra. Powell, along with ECB President Christine Lagarde is to participate in a panel discussion on "monetary policy in an era of transition”. Over the weekend the first round of the French elections hit the headlines with the far-right National Rally party, under Marine LePen's leadership gaining a remarkable 33% of the vote. Domestically, polls predict a landslide British election win for the opposition Labour Party on Thursday.

As for us today we have seen Eur rally, as despite Marine Le Pen’s performance, people believe they struggle to win an outright majority. On the data front we have Eurozone S&P Global Eurozone Manufacturing PMI, UK S&P Global / CIPS UK Manufacturing PMI, US construction spending and ISM Manufacturing, Speeches from ECB President Christine Lagarde and the Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel.

**For professional investors only** Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, or other information contained in this blog is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute (and should not be construed as containing) investment advice or an investment recommendation, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. Some of this information may have been provided by third-party sources and, although believed to be reliable, it has not been independently verified and its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. No representation or warranty, expressed or implied, is made or given by or on behalf of iSAM Securities or its directors or any other person as to the accuracy, completeness or fairness of the information or opinions contained in this blog, and no responsibility or liability is accepted for any such information. As a result, any person acting on any information does so entirely at their own risk. iSAM Securities will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.