'Saved by the Bell' is my favourite headline and a reference to a goal by Jude Bellingham in the fifth minute of extra time at the Euros and not the opening of a stock exchange. Welcome to July, a new month, with new data and potentially a new government in the UK. The election is Thursday which coincidences with 4th July US Independence Day and a U.S. holiday, an illiquid and volatile session. What else have we in store this week?
On Friday we have the non-farm payrolls, economists are expecting the U.S. economy to have added 189,000 jobs in June after a larger 272,000 jobs were added in May. This highlights the resilience of the US labour market and the need to push back on rates cut. The market is now pricing in December. On Tuesday the Fed Chair Jerome Powell makes an appearance at the European Central Bank’s annual forum in Sintra. Powell, along with ECB President Christine Lagarde is to participate in a panel discussion on "monetary policy in an era of transition”. Over the weekend the first round of the French elections hit the headlines with the far-right National Rally party, under Marine LePen's leadership gaining a remarkable 33% of the vote. Domestically, polls predict a landslide British election win for the opposition Labour Party on Thursday.
As for us today we have seen Eur rally, as despite Marine Le Pen’s performance, people believe they struggle to win an outright majority. On the data front we have Eurozone S&P Global Eurozone Manufacturing PMI, UK S&P Global / CIPS UK Manufacturing PMI, US construction spending and ISM Manufacturing, Speeches from ECB President Christine Lagarde and the Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel.
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