Market Commentary: Friday 1st November

Welcome to November—what a month this is going to be! With a strong U.S. focus, today we have the NFP number, in a few days the U.S. election results will be known, and on November 7, we have the FOMC meeting. Where do I start?

Yesterday’s ADP jobs report was stronger than expected at +233K vs. consensus of +111K and September’s +159K. This was much better than anticipated given recent disruptions from hurricanes and strikes. The consensus for the NFP number is creeping higher to 125K, whereas earlier in the week it was closer to 100K. The dollar’s performance was strong last month—the "Trump trade" has benefited the USD in recent weeks. If Trump were to win the November 5 election, he would not need Congressional support for tariff increases, meaning these could be enacted relatively quickly. The inflationary consequences could mean that the Fed’s easing cycle could end by January. If markets have been too hasty in placing "Trump trades," it’s very likely that the USD will fall back on a Harris win. There may also be some scope for a "sell on the fact" reaction, but all signs point to "Volatility being King," and we’re in for a rollercoaster ride.

Overnight, Asian equity indexes fell, on course for their longest weekly losing streak in more than two years. They were dragged down by sluggish earnings in the region and tech stock declines. Bitcoin fell 0.6% to $69,548.20, Ether fell 0.4% to $2,507.32, the yield on 10-year Treasuries declined one basis point to 4.27%. West Texas Intermediate crude rose 2% to $70.64 a barrel, and spot gold rose 0.3% to $2,753.50 an ounce.

**For professional investors only** Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, or other information contained in this blog is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute (and should not be construed as containing) investment advice or an investment recommendation, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. Some of this information may have been provided by third-party sources and, although believed to be reliable, it has not been independently verified and its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. No representation or warranty, expressed or implied, is made or given by or on behalf of iSAM Securities or its directors or any other person as to the accuracy, completeness or fairness of the information or opinions contained in this blog, and no responsibility or liability is accepted for any such information. As a result, any person acting on any information does so entirely at their own risk. iSAM Securities will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.