As the Summer Season continues it is politics that continues to hit the headlines. Kamala Harris has more than enough pledged delegates to clinch the Democratic presidential nomination. Democrats have poured $81m (£62m) in donations into Vice-President Kamala Harris' presidential campaign since President Joe Biden dropped out. This is the largest 24-hour period of campaign funding in presidential history with more than 888,000 donors making contributions of less than $200. Harris will now recommend a running mate at the party’s national convention in Chicago the week of Aug 19.
Away from politics and back to the markets the JPY is the best performing G10 currency on a 6 day basis now. USD/JPY is holding its position below the 50-day ma at 158.04 and the 100 ma at 155.34 is providing support. Insofar as the Trump trade implies a stronger USD (on the assumption that he would boost inflation through lower taxes and higher tariffs), US politics will play into the outlook for USD/JPY this year. While a stronger dollar would weaken the likelihood that the currency pair is in the process of topping out, the outcome of the July 31 BoJ policy meeting is also key. Can the BoJ turn hawkish?
In other markets the yield on 10-year Treasuries declined one basis point to 4.24%, West Texas Intermediate crude was little changed $79.20 a barrel near a six-week low, Spot gold fell 0.1% to $2,393.73 an ounce, Bitcoin fell 2.4% to $66,525.60 and Ether fell 1.6% to $3,435.4. The focus today will be equities with earnings from Alphabet, Tesla and LVMH to name a few and on the data front it is Eurozone consumer confidence.
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