Market Commentary: Thursday 27th June

With a week to go to the UK election, politics is at the forefront of the decision making process. Tonight we get 'age anxiety' as Joe Biden and Donald Trump - the two oldest candidates ever to seek the US presidency have a televised debate. This is the first of two debates ahead of November’s vote. With reference to the UK election there is a market liquidity concern as the general election falls on July 4, US Independence Day and the increased volatility will mean prices will be wider.

In overnight news, China’s industrial companies saw their profits climb as higher prices for commodities eased pressure on miners, though questions remain over whether the gains can be sustained due to concern over excess capacity in some sectors. Industrial profits at large companies rose 0.7% from a year earlier in May, the National Bureau of Statistics said on Thursday. That compared with a 4% growth the previous month. The data for the rest of the day includes Eurozone economic confidence and consumer confidence, US durable goods, initial jobless claims and GDP and in the equity world we get Nike Earnings.

Market wise, in currencies USD Yen is the main discussion point- will they/won't they intervene and at what level. USDJPY has just reached its highest level since 1986 - 160.84 - and as much as we like to think the BOJ are in control it is really all about the Fed. The 'Higher for Longer' mantra is keeping the front end of the rate curve elevated, the carry remains significant at -80 FX pips in the 1 month. Until this changes, a push up to 165 seems on the cards.

In other markets the yield on 10-year Treasuries was little changed at 4.33%, Brent crude fell 0.2% to $85.05 a barrel, bitcoin is at $60,600 and Gold $2,300 per ounce.

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