Today we are data light but politically heavy. Russia reiterated it will use a nuclear weapon if threatened, in the Middle East, the Red Sea crisis is getting worse - President Biden just confirmed a $10bn sanctions waiver for Iran and yesterday the TikTok divestment bill passed the US House of Representatives with a huge bipartisan majority.
Overnight the main data point was New Zealand net migration and that moves me swiftly on to today, where we will see the final reading of Spanish CPI for February. No change is expected from the 2.9% y-o-y EU-harmonised figure that was previously reported. Yesterday the ECB concluded its review of the operational framework, the most interesting move was the corridor between the refinancing rate and the deposit facility rate will be reduced from the current 50bp to 15bp as of September 18. In North America we will see January manufacturing sales data for Canada. A small expansion of 0.4% m-o-m is expected there, but the main event is the US retail sales report for February. The advance figure is expected to show growth of 0.8% m-o-m, while ex-autos is expected to be 0.5% and ex-autos and gas 0.3%. There is also the US producer price inflation report for February. The headline figure is expected to rise to 1.2% y-o-y while the core reading moderates by 1-tick to 1.9% y-o-y. We also have the usual US weekly jobless claims figures and January business inventories. Central bank speakers include De Cos, Guindos and Stournaras from the ECB.
Market wise the focus is still Bitcoin and Gold, the former rose 0.6% to $73,598.01, whilst the later was unchanged at $2168. The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced one basis point to 4.20% and USDJPY opens at 147.90. The front month of Iron Ore opens at 103 and this has been very much sell the rally mode.
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