Market Commentary: Monday 30th September 2024

The CSI 300 index is poised for its biggest daily gain in 16 years, presently up 8.2%, and both iron ore and Chinese developer stocks surged after three major cities eased rules on housing purchases. This buoyance has not been replicated in Japan, where the Nikkei is down close to 5%, after the victory of Shigeru Ishiba in the Japanese ruling party’s leadership race wrong footed investors. As for today the third quarter draws to a close this week and there will be fixing interest. The last quarter has been characterised by JPY strength and Tech volatility, infact this will be the best quarter for the JPY since the global crisis of 2008.

As for the week ahead market participants are keen to see whether Friday's NFP data will support Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's sunny outlook for cooling inflation and resilient growth, a key factor behind the markets' surge to new highs following the central bank's meeting. Softness in the labour market could revive fears that an economic downturn may be imminent, while unexpectedly strong jobs growth may stir worries that the Fed will not cut rates as deeply as expected as it seeks to avoid an inflation flare-up.

To start the week CBs cuts priced into year-end: Fed 78, ECB 52, BOE 40, how will this change?In other markets Bitcoin fell 2.1% to $64,433.6, Ether fell 1.1% to $2,631.1, the yield on 10-year Treasuries was little changed at 3.75%, West Texas Intermediate crude rose 0.5% to $68.53 a barrel and surprisingly spot gold was little changed at $2657 per ounce. 

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