Welcome to December – and nearly another year over! Overnight, equities have performed strongly, with my Bloomberg screen a sea of green. China’s official manufacturing PMI rose to 50.3 in November, higher than the consensus of 50.2 and the previous reading of 50.1. Australia's retail sales in October printed a 0.6% m/m increase, beating estimates of 0.4% after a 0.1% rise in September. However, in Japan, manufacturing PMI fell to 49 in November from 49.2 in October, marking its lowest reading since March.
So, what’s in store this week? NFPs immediately spring to mind – financial commentators are expecting approximately 200k jobs to have been added in November after disruptions from strikes and hurricanes weakened October’s report. A plethora of Fed officials are scheduled to make appearances throughout the week. These include Governors Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman, New York Fed President John Williams, St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, and Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee – so watch out for headlines. The OECD will publish its latest Economic Outlook on Wednesday, containing analysis and projections for the global economy. In its September forecast, the Paris-based organization expected the global economy to grow by 3.2% both this year and next, nudging up its 2024 forecast from 3.1% previously, while leaving 2025 unchanged.
As for today, we have Manufacturing PMIs out of Europe, the US, and Canada, as well as a speech from the ECB's Christine Lagarde. In it, the ECB may signal the need for a more aggressive rate-cut policy if there is evidence that US tariffs could push Europe into a recession.
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