Chinese shares are up 1.8% as investors weigh the impact of measures announced by the Finance Ministry to revive growth. Goldman Sachs has upgraded its 2024 China GDP forecast to 4.9% from 4.7%. In the US, it is Columbus Day and a public holiday, and the rest of the week will focus on earnings, the ECB, and the US consumer.
Event-wise, the European Central Bank (ECB) is widely anticipated to reduce policy by 25bps on Thursday at 12:15 pm GMT, bringing the Deposit Rate to 3.25%, amid softening CPI inflation data and weak growth metrics. This is fully priced in, with another 25bp reduction expected at December’s meeting. A rate cut this week would follow rate reductions in June and September. The speech by President Lagarde is equally important, as investors will be looking for clues on the ECB’s next moves—namely, how fast and how much rates will fall.
In the US, retail sales data for September is announced at 1:30 pm on Thursday. Analysts expect a 0.3% month-over-month rise, extending the mild acceleration seen in August (0.1%). China’s GDP is out on Friday—can the annual 5% growth be reached? Second-quarter data was weak; will this be reversed?
Market-wise, Bitcoin rose 1.7% to $63,789.47, Ether rose 2.1% to $2,510.87, Australia’s 10-year yield advanced four basis points to 4.27%, West Texas Intermediate crude fell 1% to $74.81 a barrel, and spot gold opens at $2,664 per ounce.
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