The Stella NFPs numbers are still being talked about exceeding expectations at 275,000 against a consensus call of 200,000. However, as we know at iSAM the devil is in the detail, as the downward revisions to prior months totalled 167,000 for December and January, taking the total change in employed persons well below the implied forecast, and helping the unemployment rate to pop two-ticks to 3.9%. Average hourly earnings growth fell to 0.2% m-o-m and average weekly hours worked languished at 34.3, equalling pre-pandemic lows.
The other interesting chart from Friday was the NVIDIA price action, a key day reversal - we closed on the day at $875.28, -$51.41. This 5% drop was the worst one-day performance since late May. There was a certain irony that algos bought it up and humans sold it off. So, what will be the focus this week? US data still dominates, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for February will be released on Tuesday - Economists are expecting February's consumer price index to rise 0.4% after a faster than expected increase of 0.3% in January. Thursday sees the US retail sales and producer price index (PPI) and Friday Industrial Production data.
Domestically it is Cheltenham week, a National Hunt Horseracing festival but it is the release of its latest jobs report on Tuesday, which investors and the Bank of England alike will be looking at, focusing on wage growth amid speculation over the timing of a first rate cut. June or August are the front runners at the moment.
As for today we have Spanish retail sales for January (3% y-o-y expected) and China foreign investment and monetary aggregates data for February. We will also get the New York Fed’s 1-year inflation expectations reading, and the BOE’s Catherine Mann is scheduled to participate in a panel discussion.
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