If last week was about the employment data then this week is about the inflation data. Ahead of this event on Wednesday I want to draw your attention to the fact that September is historically far and away the worst month for stocks. Since 1928, the S&P 500 has had an average decline of 1.2% And the so-called 'September effect' seems to have become more exaggerated over time. On Friday the S&P finished -1.7% and in the past four years, the decline has been no smaller than 3.9% and as big as 9.3%. Perhaps these equity moves are not over for this month and there is real 'Risk Off' feel to the markets.
This Risk Aversion is highlighted in the Iron Ore market and Oil market, last week Volkswagen drafted plans to shut German factories for the first time in 87 years. Brent Crude opens the week below $70 per barrel the lowest level since December 2021 and the front month of Iron Ore dipped to 89.65.
As for today the focus will be on the new Apple product launch, the iPhone 16, the 10th addition of the Apple Watch and new Airpod but away from that we have US Wholesale Inventories as the first data pint to grab our attention. As for the rest of the week it is dominated by China’s National People’s Congress standing committee meeting which begins, Tuesday. US CPI, Wednesday and Eurozone ECB rate decision, Thursday.
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