The dollar has weakened and US stock futures have declined slightly as traders prep themselves for US job data today that may determine how big the Feds interest rate cut will be this month (given that Powell more or less signaled that some rate cut is happening). It is believed that a worse than expected payrolls outcome may spur the Fed into cutting by 50 basis points. How weak it needs to be for the fed to cut 50 bps is up for debate but our sources are saying that 2 key numbers will be taken into consideration - the payrolls number and the unemployment rate.
An unemployment rate of 4.3% or more is considered high enough to push the Fed into the "50" camp by itself; unemployment between 4.2-4.29% with payrolls above 150k will be keeping them in the "25" camp; 4.2-4.29 % with payrolls below 150k is also thought to be enough for the fed to go with 50.
The headline payrolls number is of course a key indicator for stocks too - we're still in a world where good data is good for stocks and bad data is bad for stocks so we should see US equities bouncing off strong NFP numbers today. NFP is out 13:30 BST today.
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