IS Risk Analytics' View From the Desk - December 2020
Activity in the first two weeks of December was enough to make the month a relatively strong one for brokers despite volatility waning as the month progressed....
Buoyed by early month volatility that arose surrounding vaccine news, November volumes exceeded October’s even though activity trailed off sharply late in the month. The vaccine news prompted a sharp gold selloff that many brokers were on the wrong side of, but total monthly profits far exceeded the depressed figures from October and finished in line with 2020 monthly averages. December is historically a slow month in the markets, but with Covid cases still surging and a Brexit deadline looming, this year could prove to be an anomaly.
*Average Daily Volume represents the daily volume from ISRA customers for each day of the month divided by the average daily volume for the month. Each day is represented as a percent of the average.
** Average Daily B Book PnL represents the daily B Book PnL from ISRA customers for each day of the month divided by the average daily B Book PnL for the month. Each day is represented as a percent of the average.
Source: IS Risk Analytics Database. Past Performance is not necessarily indicative of future results
ASIA
President elect Joe Biden has stated he does not plan to make any immediate moves to lift the tariffs the Trump Administration placed on a range of Chinese products. Biden plans to conduct a full review of the phase one US China trade deal and consult with US allies before making and changes to the framework currently in place. China has stated it hopes to renegotiate the agreement once the new US administration is in place.
EUROPE
The UK became the first Western country to approve a Covid-19 vaccine and the distribution of the first 800,000 doses is set to begin the second week of December. On the Brexit front, British and EU officials are racing to reach a deal by mid-December, but the outcome remains unclear. The final items to resolve surround fishing, governance rules, and dispute resolution.
AMERICAS
Despite ongoing legal challenges brought by Donald Trump’s campaign, it appears Joe Biden will be inaugurated President of the United States in January. President elect Biden has already begun naming prospective members of his cabinet, including former Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen as Treasury Secretary. The US also announced it is prepared to deliver 20 million doses of the Coronavirus vaccine by the end of December assuming the treatment receives emergency regulatory approval.
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