The "Trump Trades" are on: Bitcoin has broken $75,000, 10-year yields rose by as much as 19 basis points to a four-month high of 4.47%, DJT - Trump Media and Technology Company is up 40%, the S&P is up 1.2%, and the Hang Seng is down 2.6% on protectionist promises. The latest results show Trump winning both North Carolina and Georgia, with Republicans gaining control of the U.S. Senate. The dollar is stronger across the board, with EUR/USD opening at 1.0740, approaching major support at 1.0666 (June low), then 1.0601, the YTD low. Cable opens at 1.2870 and USD/JPY at 154.00.
What has driven this political shift? Exit polls suggest economic concerns are top of mind, but historically, the S&P 500 has tended to rise after elections, regardless of the balance of power in Washington. The focus now will be on fundamentals: the Fed remains accommodative and is expected to cut rates again this week, providing a strong backdrop for stocks. Time to add them to those pensions…
As for today, we have German factory orders for September and the final services and composite PMIs for October in the Euro Area. ECB speeches are expected from President Lagarde, Vice President de Guindos, and board members Escriva, Vujcic, and Villeroy.
**For professional investors only** Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, or other information contained in this blog is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute (and should not be construed as containing) investment advice or an investment recommendation, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. Some of this information may have been provided by third-party sources and, although believed to be reliable, it has not been independently verified and its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. No representation or warranty, expressed or implied, is made or given by or on behalf of iSAM Securities or its directors or any other person as to the accuracy, completeness or fairness of the information or opinions contained in this blog, and no responsibility or liability is accepted for any such information. As a result, any person acting on any information does so entirely at their own risk. iSAM Securities will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.