Some weak Chinese economic data overnight has increased the expectation of the pace of fiscal and monetary policy to come. Official manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI numbers missed estimates last night (the former fell into contraction). Despite this, Chinese stocks rose with the CSI up slightly (0.07%).
A theme worldwide is the slew of recent weaker economic data - slowdown in growth in the US, weak PMI numbers in China, and contraction in industrial output in Japan - illustrating the challenge for Central Bankers, but allowing investors to be bolder in bets on easing monetary policy globally. On that note, in the US today we have PCE numbers - a key inflation gauge for the Fed - a downside miss there could weigh on the dollar. So far today and overnight the dollar and treasuries have been steady.
In Japan, industrial output fell, jobless rate was unchanged and inflation (in Tokyo) accelerated in May, meaning the BoJ are still on track to consider hiking in the coming months. Money markets are now pricing in 29 bps of hikes by year-end.
Donald Trump has been found guilty by a jury of all 34 counts of falsifying business records, making him the first former US president to be convicted of crimes.
On the data front today we have:
- Eurozone CPI
- US consumer income, spending and PCE
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